Looking Ahead to The 2019 Boston Marathon
The below data is based on the preliminary results of The 2018 Boston Marathon. The conditions were miserable. The wind was strong and the rain/sleet was challenging. Last year was a scorcher. The results were surprisingly similar for those that finished.
Average Finish Time for Those With a Qualifying Time (Elites Excluded)
3:42:14(3:45:13 Last Year)
Average Boston Qualifying Time (Elites Excluded) – Estimated
3:21:48 (3:22:27 Last Year)
(A 10.1% Differential. I calculated the 2017 variance as 11.26%)
Average Finish Time for Those With a Qualifying Time – MALE (Elites Excluded)
3:33:37 (3:35:54 Last Year)
Average Boston Qualifying Time – MALE (Elites Excluded)
3:11:43 (3:11:57 Last Year)
An 11.4% Differential (12.41% Differential Last Year)
Average Finish Time for Those With a Qualifying Time – FEMALE (Elites Excluded)
3:53:14 (3:56:15 Last Year)
Average Boston Qualifying Time – FEMALE (Elites Excluded)
3:34:35 (3:34:54 Last Year) An 8.7% Differential (9.91% Differential Last Year)
Relative to their qualifying times, Women performed better in Boston in 2018 as well as in 2017.
29978 Runners were registered, 3030 of those did not start the race. Last year 2783 runners didn’t make it to the start.
25746 Runners Finished (Before any disqualifications) 95.6%. Last Year 97% of Runners Finished.
As the data shows, the runners that finished the 2018 Boston Marathon performed better than their 2017 counterparts. However, there were a higher percentage of runners that DNF’d, and a higher percentage that did not make it to the starting line.
The above chart represents the basis for my investigation of qualifying times. The chart plots bib numbers against Boston finishing times. The runners I am most interested in are the stragglers well above the trendline. They ran Boston in a significantly slower time relative to others with similar qualifying times. In the upcoming days, for the purpose of review, I will create a modified version of this data with ‘predicted Boston times’ This prediction will be a function of qualifying time, adjusted for the average Boston finish time variance, and in many cases, adjusted for the ease of the qualifying marathon.
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