As I bring in all the data and crunch the #s to prioritize the list of runners review, I thought I would share some findings.
The data below is based, in many on runners where I have identified the qualifying marathons for.
Average Finish Time for Those With a Qualifying Time (Elites Excluded)
Average Boston Qualifying Time (Elites Excluded)
(An 11.26% Differential. I calculated the 2016 variance as 10.4%)
Average Finish Time for Those With a Qualifying Time – MALE (Elites Excluded)
Average Boston Qualifying Time – MALE (Elites Excluded)
(A 12.41% Differential)
Average Finish Time for Those With a Qualifying Time – FEMALE (Elites Excluded)
Average Boston Qualifying Time – FEMALE (Elites Excluded)
(A 9.91% Differential)
Relative to their qualifying times, Women performed better in Boston in 2017.
Average Finish Time for Those That Used Boston 2016 as Their Qualifier for Boston 2017
Average Qualifying Time for Those That Used Boston 2016 as Their Qualifier for Boston 2017
(A 5.4% Differential)
Runners that qualified for Boston 2017 using Boston 2016, on average ran slower than last year. Weather conditions were very similar to 2016. It was warmer at the start in 2017.
|Marathon||# of Identified Entries||Average Boston Time||Average Qualifying Time||Difference||% Difference|
|2016 REVEL Mt Charleston||147||4:06:31||3:24:44||0:41:47||20%|
|2015 Indianapolis Marathon||20||4:03:32||3:26:24||0:37:08||18%|
|2015 St. George Marathon||284||4:00:56||3:24:54||0:36:02||18%|
|2015 Naperville Marathon||26||3:58:00||3:22:38||0:35:21||17%|
|2016 The Tunnel Lite Marathon||84||3:55:49||3:21:49||0:34:01||17%|
|2016 Albany Marathon (formerly the Snickers Marathon Energy Bar Marathon)||54||4:00:33||3:26:22||0:34:10||17%|
|2015 REVEL Canyon City Marathon||106||4:04:32||3:29:53||0:34:40||17%|
|2016 Light at the End of the Tunnel Marathon||91||4:01:34||3:27:46||0:33:48||16%|
|2016 Town of Celebration Marathon||32||4:07:20||3:32:45||0:34:34||16%|
|2016 Jack and Jill’s Downhill Marathon||41||3:59:30||3:26:25||0:33:05||16%|
|2015 Rocket City Marathon||20||3:51:39||3:19:43||0:31:56||16%|
|2015 Columbus Marathon||206||3:55:01||3:23:02||0:31:59||16%|
|2016 Mercedes Marathon||21||3:47:48||3:17:05||0:30:42||16%|
|2015 Mohawk-Hudson River Marathon||97||4:00:58||3:28:39||0:32:18||15%|
|2016 Louisiana Marathon||33||4:04:21||3:31:49||0:32:31||15%|
|2016 Glass City Marathon||80||3:54:26||3:23:22||0:31:03||15%|
|2015 Peak to Creek Marathon (formerly Ridge to Bridge Marathon)||31||3:57:35||3:26:07||0:31:28||15%|
|2016 Big Cottonwood Marathon & Half||198||3:55:53||3:24:46||0:31:08||15%|
|2016 Surf City Marathon (prev. Pacific Shoreline Marathon)||27||4:01:29||3:29:42||0:31:46||15%|
|2015 Grand Rapids Marathon||73||3:55:25||3:24:29||0:30:56||15%|
|2015 Victoria Marathon||45||4:06:53||3:34:35||0:32:17||15%|
|2015 Milwaukee Running Festival Marathon||21||3:52:20||3:22:01||0:30:20||15%|
|2016 Pocono Mountain Run For The Red Marathon||131||3:49:50||3:19:52||0:29:59||15%|
|2015 Lakefront Marathon||110||3:57:12||3:26:24||0:30:48||15%|
|2015 Melbourne Marathon||33||3:48:33||3:18:55||0:29:38||15%|
For races where I’ve identified that 20 or more runners used that for their Boston qualifier, I looked at the variance in qualifying times vs. Boston times. The races above had the largest variances, which indicates that these qualifiers were the “easiest” to qualify for Boston ’17. The Tunnel Marathons and Jack and Jill are run on nearly identical courses, and comprise 3 of the top 10. Many of the races also have significant overall declines. I plan to do further analysis on this list for a future article.
I will have much more to come in the coming days. I am sure I will have incidents of cheating to report on. The data above is just s portion of what goes into the algorithm that I use to prioritize the result review. The biggest improvements to the algorithm will come from better understanding of the qualifier marathons. I will use all of the data I have to determine ‘predicted finish times’ and review based on variances against the predicted finish times. I will again reiterate that if you had a bad day, no need to justify your time to me.
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